A Thoughtful Response to Market Turmoil

If you’ve looked at your investments recently, you’ve probably winced. There’s a lot of concern amidst stock market swings and increased gas prices.

This may feel like déjà vu: last year it was the tariff announcements that led the market to a steep decline. Ultimately, the year turned around and finished in a very strong position. Now, 2026 has begun with increased volatility in the stock market, and the headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East have been relentless.

None of this is comfortable. But it is familiar. And history reminds us that moments like these often reward thoughtful responses, not fearful reactions.

Faith Over Fear

Market turmoil amplifies uncertainty. When outcomes feel unknowable, fear tends to fill the gaps. As investors, the real risk often isn’t volatility itself. It’s allowing short‑term anxiety to override long‑term wisdom.

A principled approach begins by acknowledging what we cannot control: wars, commodity prices, elections, or the next headline. It also means centering on what we can control: our behavior, our planning, and our disciplines.

As uncomfortable as uncertainty is, it can be clarifying. If we allow it, periods of unrest can focus us of what’s really important: 

• Where is our ultimate hope? Is it in “the uncertainty of riches”? 
• What is most valuable in our lives? Our collected belongings or assets?

Why Market Timing Rarely Works

Time and again, markets have moved through periods of stress and emerged stronger. As our friends at JP Morgan recently put it, “In markets, winters are often short and summers long.”

When volatility spikes, some experience a temptation to sell investments and “get back in” later. The challenge is that markets rarely announce when fear has peaked or when a recovery begins.

Research from Schwab has shown that missing just the top 10 days in the market over the past 20 years would have cut annualized returns by nearly 40%.

Selling is easy. Knowing when to “get back in” is impossible. If you’d like a simple (and surprisingly humbling) demonstration of this, I recommend trying the “Time the Market” Game created by the Personal Finance Club:

➡️https://personalfinanceclub.com/time-the-market-game/

Most people (including professionals) discover just how difficult it is to outperform a patient, disciplined approach. The cost of missing even a handful of strong market days can far outweigh the perceived benefit of avoiding short‑term declines.

Focus on What You Can Control

Rather than trying to predict how this uncertainty will resolve, we believe the most effective response focuses on sound fundamentals and prudent decision‑making.

Here are the key steps we emphasize during times like this:

1. Maintain Adequate Cash Reserves

Maintaining liquidity isn’t about timing the market. Instead, it’s about financial stability and peace of mind. Cash reserves and an appropriate allocation to bonds help ensure that short‑term needs don’t force long‑term investment decisions at the wrong time.

2. Avoid Taking on Excessive Debt

Periods of rising rates and economic stress tend to expose leverage. Keeping debt at a manageable level reduces risk and supports flexibility, regardless of what markets do next.

3. Stay the Course With Your Long‑Term Plan

A helpful question right now is: What has fundamentally changed?

Your goals?
Your time horizon?
Your values?

In most cases, the answer is “very little.” Markets navigate periods of intense volatility in the short-term, but over the long-term these periods of turmoil tend to subside. Our long‑term strategies are built with volatility in mind, not in denial of it.

4. Be Thoughtful About Opportunities

Periods of turmoil can create opportunities for disciplined investors. This may include:

• Rebalancing portfolios
• Harvesting tax losses where appropriate
• Gradually positioning for long‑term growth themes that extend well beyond current headlines

These are measured actions based on your individual goals and time horizons, not bold predictions.

A Longer View

It’s worth re-emphasizing that last year began with similar volatility and concern, yet markets finished strong. That isn’t a prediction; it’s a reminder. Uncertainty is not new, and it has rarely been a reason to abandon well‑constructed plans.

We don’t know how or when today’s geopolitical tensions will resolve. What we do know is that thoughtful stewardship has always favored preparation over prediction, discipline over urgency, and faith over fear.

If recent market turmoil has raised questions about your plan, that’s an important conversation to have. If you want to walk through what this means for your situation, we’re always here to help.

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